PERMANENT PERFORMANCE LEDGER

THE RECEIPTS,
NOT THE HYPE.

Every eligible call is judged by its published scoring contract. The founding edition locked its rule before official results; every later edition must lock its rule before the forecast itself. Pending calls never enter accuracy or calibration.

1EDITIONS

108LOCKED CALLS

0VERIFIED RESULTS

0%RESULT COVERAGE

—CALIBRATION ERROR · UNSCORED

—BRIER SCORE · UNSCORED

EDITION LEDGER

FESTIVAL BY FESTIVAL.

Coverage includes eligible assignments and documented exclusions. Accuracy includes eligible calls only.

2026 · ORLANDO2026 — EDC Orlando

COVERAGE0%ELIGIBLE0ACCURACYPENDINGOPEN

CONFIDENCE CALIBRATION

DID THE NUMBERS MEAN WHAT THEY SAID?

Each prediction-model and scoring-contract combination is its own cohort. Every observed rate includes a 95% Wilson interval and a predeclared sample-maturity label, so incompatible standards are never mixed and early results are not presented as settled.

MODEL + SCORING COHORTFounding legacy model · Scoring Contract v11 EDITION · 108 CALLS · 0 SCORED · UNSCORED SAMPLE · CALIBRATION V1No eligible result is available.

CALIBRATION ERROR —BRIER SCORE —

50–59%0/13 SCORED

UNSCORED SAMPLE

60–69%0/63 SCORED

UNSCORED SAMPLE

70–79%0/6 SCORED

UNSCORED SAMPLE

80–89%0/5 SCORED

UNSCORED SAMPLE

90–100%0/21 SCORED

UNSCORED SAMPLE

STAGE PERFORMANCE

WHERE THE MODEL HITS—AND MISSES.

AWAITING THE FIRST OFFICIAL STAGE RELEASE

This section activates automatically when verified eligible results are added.

MEASUREMENT POLICYNo pending call is treated as a miss. No cancellation is treated as a prediction failure.

Original forecasts and confidence values remain immutable. Corrections to official sources must be documented separately. Small calibration samples remain labeled preliminary.

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